Although people like to say "throw the bums out" before American elections, when it comes down to casting ballots, voters choose incumbents, mainstream candidates, establishment nominees, and party regulars the vast majority of the time.

          "Except in Presidential elections," said William S. Bike, author of Winning Political Campaigns: A Comprehensive Guide to Electoral Success. "It's an oddity in American politics that in the most important race of all, voters tend to favor insurgents, fresh faces, and untested candidates over regulars, mainstreamers, and establishment types."

          The proof? Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Jimmy Carter, all fit the definition of insurgents and fresh faces, Bike noted.

          "Each of them achieved the Presidency on his first try," Bike noted. "Whereas candidates who had been around for a while—Walter Mondale, Bob Dole, John Kerry, John McCain, and Mitt Romney—obtained their party's nomination, but then went down to defeat."

          People forget that even Ronald Reagan was an insurgent, Bike noted.

          "Although Reagan had run for president in 1968 and 1976, even in 1980 when he finally achieved the Republican nomination, the party regulars hadn't wanted him," Bike recalled. "The establishment had backed George H.W. Bush in the primaries and were worried that mainstream, middle-of-the-road, suburban Republicans and independents wouldn't vote for Reagan, who was the candidate of the populists, the farm belt, and the conservatives. That's why they insisted on Bush being chosen for Vice President when Reagan insiders would have preferred Jack Kemp or Paul Laxalt."

          That history does not bode well for Jeb Bush, Bike explained.

          "It feels like the Bushes have been around forever, and it will be almost impossible for Jeb to differentiate himself from his brother and father," Bike said. "Most of Jeb's advisors were members of the George W. Bush administration, so it's not like there are any fresh faces there at all. A recent New York Times article quoted even some rank-and-file Republicans who looked at Jeb as merely a retread of his brother."

          Yet the party regulars, establishment, and big-money contributors have been moving into the Jeb camp, even as the candidate polls poorly and even sometimes gets booed at Republican events, Bike said.

          "A fresh face like a Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, or Marco Rubio as the nominee would energize the Republican base and pique the interest of Americans who normally have only a casual interest in politics," Bike said. "Jeb Bush, an old face by default because of his association with his brother and father, just won't excite the base or engage people who don't pay a lot of attention to politics."

          A Hillary Clinton-Jeb Bush general election race with two old faces "will really be a ho-hummer for most people," Bike said, and could result in a 2016 voter turnout "that dips below 40%."

          But put up a fresh face against Clinton, and the Republicans "could really make it a horse race, if history is any guide," Bike said. "Newcomer Obama beat the familiar McCain; newcomer George W. Bush beat the familiar Al Gore; newcomer Bill Clinton beat incumbent George H.W. Bush; and the list goes on."

          "The GOP candidate in 2016 is either going to be an establishment Republican like Jeb Bush who will disappoint the Tea Party, or a newcomer who will excite them," Bike said. "George W. Bush had both establishment business credentials and conservative social issues credibility. Jeb Bush has the former, but is desperately trying to establish the latter."

            More political analysis can be found in Winning Political Campaigns: A Comprehensive Guide to Electoral Success, a how-to e-book providing information on everything a candidate, campaign worker, or activist needs to know to conduct a political race.

          Winning Political Campaigns was written by Bike, an award winning journalist, public relations professional, and political pundit who has appeared on many radio and television broadcasts, including CNN. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhZYkyRx-C4.

          Winning Political Campaigns is available on Smashwords at http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/149191 and Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.com/Winning-Political-Campaigns-Comprehensive-ebook/dp/B007U7C31K/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1334443628&sr=8-2

          The two previous Denali Press print editions of Winning Political Campaigns were highly acclaimed. "From a practical, political operations standpoint, it is the best book out, yet," said reviewer Hank Landa of Political Book Reviews.

          Winning Political Campaigns "provides essential tools, practical pointers, and valuable advice about running campaigns successfully," writes Fran Ulmer, former Lieutenant Governor of Alaska.

          Covering everything from advertising to building alliances, proper business practices, campaign literature, candidate behavior, media, voter contact, debating, fundraising, strategy, and more, Winning Political Campaigns is extremely thorough and detailed, yet easy to use. Real-life examples are drawn not only form the political world, but from the worlds of sport, higher education, history, and more.

          Innovations by the Obama and Tea Party campaigns, the Citizens United Supreme Court decision on fundraising, new uses for social media and digital advertising in campaigns, and much more state-of-the-science information and campaign innovations that have become part of the scene since the last edition, are included. They make the third edition of Winning Political Campaigns a must for candidates and staff for campaigns at any level.

          Particularly useful are appendices including a sample itinerary for a political event, an event planning checklist, resource organizations expert on various issues, media terms, a sample news release and direct mail piece, and more.

          One reason the book is so comprehensive is because few other authors can combine Bike's background of having been a candidate, officeholder, political worker and volunteer, journalist, historian, public relations officer, publications director, government employee, fundraiser, and budget director.

Previous editions of Winning Political Campaigns have not only been used by campaigns, but as textbooks for college and university courses at Harvard University and other institutions of higher learning.

          "At a time when a majority of Americans do not participate in the political process, a process with deep impact on the lives of every American…Bill Bike is waging a campaign for involvement—meaningful involvement," said Congressman Danny K. Davis of Illinois. "Winning Political Campaigns is designed to enable ordinary citizens to take back their government, to be heard, to win. It is a timely and useful book and we welcome it."

          "Let the telegenic beltway pundits propound ponderous theories on the state of democracy in the U.S.," wrote Booklist magazine. "Chicago communications consultant Bike offers the view from the trenches… Bike offers well-organized, very detailed advice on virtually every subject a candidate's support team should consider…."

          For more information, contact Central Park Communications at (773) 229-0024 or http://www.centralparkcommunications.com.     -30-