There are just under 100 days to go before Election Day, however, from a security perspective seems like an eternity. Every aspect of law enforcement everywhere will be stretched to its limit as political and civil unrest are simmering, ready to boil over at any given moment. An upcoming political slugfest and street fight (literally and figuratively) are emerging.
Prescient Perspectives
As a primer, my article entitled 2024: A Vortex of Tumult & Turmoil published August 31, 2023 forecasted with unerring accuracy how the present-day global events are playing out including how Biden would be a de facto lame duck before the 2024 presidential elections.
Political Violence in the US is Real
The informal kick-off to the upcoming socio-political violence was the attempted assassination of President Trump. It underscored the severity of America's political divisiveness and justifiably spawned conspiracy theories even amongst those who would strongly prefer, psychologically, to believe in coincidences.
The link to the following chart entitled A Timeline of Assassination Attempts Against US Presidents provided by news reports and Wikipedia outlines those attempts.
Barely remembered nowadays, the last attempted assassination of a US President was almost 50 years ago on September 5, 1975 when Lynette "Squeaky" Fromme tried to kill President Ford. His life was probably spared because there was no bullet in the chamber.
Projected Civil Unrest "Timetable"
The following is a list of trigger dates for civil unrest:
- High alert for possible Israeli-Hezbollah war.
- Democratic National Convention (DNC): August 19-22 in Chicago.
- Labor Day weekend.
- Football season begins.
- Universities open for fall semester. Students regroup and restart on-campus and off-campus protests.
- Hamas terrorist attack anniversary on October 7. Pro-Hamas and/or antisemites "celebrate" attacks on Israel.
- Baseball playoffs.
- NYC Marathon, November 3rd.
- Election Day, November 5th.
- January 6, 2025
Coming Soon
The most likely next major series of protest events could be the start of intense Israel-Hezbollah hostilities. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has received the green light to attack Hezbollah forces after missiles killed civilians, mostly children in the Golan Heights. This military action will certainly give the pro-Hamas protestors a second wind.
Civil Unrest - Analogous Dynamics
Because of the short time frame between the aforementioned events, there will be the inevitable carryover violence resulting in a relentless compounding effect.
For this reason, these near future events will grow like invasive weeds growing faster than one can cut them. Furthermore, many of these protests are unofficially linked to each other just as weed species intertwine themselves for collective protection.
Their size and intensity will be difficult to forecast. Despite the cutting-edge surveillance equipment, protests can easily beat AI projection prowess by manifesting from thin air because protestors are human thus illogical and unpredictable.
The Criminal Opportunists
Overlooked are the non-political thugs who have already formed mobs targeting small and large retail establishments. An already over-stretched law enforcement provides a unique window of opportunity resulting in a surge of mass lootings.
Security: Over-Saturated with Alerts
Overwhelmed and on high alert for extended periods, security and law enforcement could engage in aggressive enforcement. They may be local police but they don't want to have their reputation sullied by the Secret Service's debacle in failing to protect Trump. This includes the physical manhandling of non-protestors and protestors alike and overreach of surveillance tools that will skirt and even pierce privacy rights.
The irony of cutting-edge surveillance is merely after-the-fact technology, does not deter crime, since few troublemakers fear arrest or incarceration with the permissive laws and legal system.
"What we have here is a failure to communicate"
The only thing worse than misinformation and disinformation is no information. Because the world is highly dependent on information technology, a CrowdStrike déjà vu event would provoke or exacerbate a chaotic environment, fueling panic.
Conclusions & Takeaways
There will be intense protests up to and beyond Election Day. Unfortunately, their intensity will make "crowd control" unachievable even if law enforcement had its full contingent of experienced personnel who retired the past few years.
For investors, go "long" on pepper spray and tear gas manufacturers. Otherwise, extreme prudence and situational awareness should be adhered to in navigating anywhere in urban environments.
© Copyright 2024 Cerulean Council LLC
The Cerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and risk assessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.