Thereare just under 100 days to go before Election Day, however, from a securityperspective seems like an eternity. Every aspect of law enforcement everywherewill be stretched to its limit as political and civil unrest are simmering,ready to boil over at any given moment. An upcoming political slugfest and street fight (literallyand figuratively) are emerging.

PrescientPerspectives

As aprimer, my article entitled 2024: A Vortex of Tumult &Turmoilpublished August 31, 2023 forecasted with unerring accuracy how the present-dayglobal events are playing out including how Biden would be a de factolame duck before the 2024 presidential elections.

PoliticalViolence in the US is Real

Theinformal kick-off to the upcoming socio-political violence was the attemptedassassination of President Trump. It underscored the severity of America’spolitical divisiveness and justifiably spawned conspiracy theories even amongstthose who would strongly prefer, psychologically, to believe in coincidences.

Thefollowing chart entitled A Timeline of AssassinationAttempts Against US Presidents provided by news reports and Wikipedia outlines thoseattempts.

Barelyremembered nowadays, the last attempted assassination of a US President was almost50 years ago on September 5, 1975 when Lynette “Squeaky” Fromme tried to killPresident Ford. His life was probably spared because there was no bullet in thechamber.

ProjectedCivil Unrest “Timetable”

Thefollowing is a list of trigger dates for civil unrest:

·       High alert for possibleIsraeli-Hezbollah war.

·       Democratic National ConventionDNC): August 19-22 in Chicago.

·       Labor Day weekend.

·       Football season begins.

·       Universities open for fall semester.Students regroup and restart on-campus and off-campus protests.

^·        Hamas terrorist attack anniversary on October 7. Pro-Hamas and/or antisemites“celebrate” attacks on Israel.

·       Baseball playoffs.

·       NYC Marathon, November 3^rd.

·       Election Day, November 5^th.

·       January 6, 2025

ComingSoon

The mostlikely next major series of protest events could be the start of intense Israel-Hezbollahhostilities. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has received the green light toattack Hezbollah forces after missiles killed civilians, mostly children in theGolan Heights. This military action will certainly give the pro-Hamasprotestors a second wind. 

CivilUnrest - Analogous Dynamics

Becauseof the short time frame between the aforementioned events, there will be theinevitable carryover violence resulting in a relentless compounding effect.

For thisreason, these near future events will grow like invasive weeds growing fasterthan one can cut them. Furthermore, many of these protests are unofficiallylinked to each other just as weed species intertwine themselves for collectiveprotection.

Theirsize and intensity will be difficult to forecast. Despite the cutting-edgesurveillance equipment, protests can easily beat AI projection prowess bymanifesting from thin air because protestors are human thus illogical and unpredictable.

TheCriminal Opportunists

Overlookedare the non-political thugs who have already formed mobs targeting small andlarge retail establishments. An already over-stretched law enforcement providesa unique window of opportunity resulting in a surge of mass lootings.

Security:Over-Saturated with Alerts

Overwhelmedand on high alert for extended periods, security and law enforcement could engagein aggressive enforcement. They may be local police but they don’t want to havetheir reputation sullied by the Secret Service’s debacle in failing to protectTrump. This includes the physical manhandling of non-protestors and protestors alikeand overreach of surveillance tools that will skirt and even pierce privacyrights.

Theirony of cutting-edge surveillance is merely after-the-fact technology, doesnot deter crime, since few troublemakers fear arrest or incarceration with the permissivelaws and legal system.

“Whatwe have here is a failure to communicate”

The onlything worse than misinformation and disinformation is no information. Becausethe world is highly dependent on information technology, a CrowdStrike déjà vuevent would provoke or exacerbate a chaotic environment, fueling panic.

Conclusions& Takeaways

Therewill be intense protests up to and beyond Election Day. Unfortunately, theirintensity will make “crowd control” unachievable even if law enforcement hadits full contingent of experienced personnel who retired the past few years.

Forinvestors, go “long” on pepper spray and tear gas manufacturers. Otherwise,extreme prudence and situational awareness should be adhered to in navigatinganywhere in urban environments.

© Copyright 2024 Cerulean Council LLC

The Cerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank thatprovides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and riskassessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.