Assassination Attempt Reaction Uncharted Territory in Social Media Era

The public and political reaction to the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump is "uncharted territory" in the social media era, said William S. Bike, author of the book Winning Political Campaigns: A Comprehensive Guide to Electoral Success.

"In the past, an assassination or attempted assassination of a President or Presidential candidate also resulted in a polling and popularity boost for the President or the President's party, as the public immediately reacted with sympathy and support," Bike said.

Bike noted that both President Gerald Ford's and President Ronald Reagan's approval ratings rose after assassination attempts, and President Lyndon Johnson's approval rating started out at 76% after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, whose last approval rating was 58%.

"But the era of social media is uncharted territory," Bike said. "After the vile assassination attempt against former President Trump, both Republicans and Democrats began offering opinions on social media that ranged from thoughtful to cruel to ridiculous. Back in the day, one would have expected Americans to close ranks and offer sympathy to former President Trump, and support for President Joe Biden for his remarks condemning the assassination attempt. There has been some of that, but also plenty of criticism of both men, which would not have happened in an earlier, less partisan era."

Bike noted that one elected official who appears to understand the new social media landscape in this situation is Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, who has called for a ratcheting down of heated rhetoric on both sides.

"Johnson has behaved like a positive throwback to an earlier era, calling for calm and cooperation instead of engaging in partisan sniping," Bike noted.

The Telegraph, a United Kingdom newspaper, offered the opinion that the assassination attempt, could "hand Trump the White House." Bike, however, noted that the assassination attempts that Presidents Ford and Reagan suffered did not particularly effect their re-election campaigns, although those campaigns' election dates happened farther away from the assassination attempts than the 2024 election date is from July 13.

"So this assassination attempt's effect on the election is uncharted territory as well," Bike concluded.

Political historian William S. Bike is the author of the book Winning Political Campaigns, a how-to guide on all aspects of political campaigning.