Wednesday, September 18, 2024
There was a lot of good news last week!
Inflation continued to trend lower. The Consumer Price Index showed that inflation was 2.5 percent year over year (yoy) in August. That's lower than economists had expected, and a significant decline from July's 2.9 percent.
Food and energy prices have been falling faster than some other prices because the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, showed a 3.2 percent increase over the last 12 months. The biggest price increases were for shelter (+5.2 percent yoy) and automobile insurance (+16.5 percent yoy).
Consumers are happier. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey found that optimism is on the rise. "Year-ahead expectations for personal finances and the economy both improved as well, despite a modest weakening in views of labor markets. Sentiment is now about 40 [percent] above its June 2022 low, though consumers remain guarded as the looming election continues to generate substantial uncertainty," reported Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. "Year-ahead inflation expectations fell for the fourth straight month, coming in at 2.7 [percent]."
Household net worth is up in the United States. Last week, the Federal Reserve reported on the financial well-being of households and nonprofit organizations at the end of June 2024. Over the last decade household and nonprofit net worth has risen from $85 trillion (2Q 2014) to $164 trillion (2Q 2024). Vince Golle of Bloomberg reported:
"U.S. household wealth reached a fresh record in the second quarter, fueled by a steady rise in the value of real estate and Americans' stock holdings...The value of real estate held by households climbed about $1.75 trillion, the most in a year, while the value of equity holdings rose about $662 billion."
It's important to note that not all Americans participate equally as wealth grows. The top 10 percent of households hold 67 percent of all household wealth, while the bottom 50 percent hold just 2.5 percent, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve.
Stocks and bonds had a good week. Last week, major U.S. stock indices moved higher, and U.S. Treasury bonds rallied as yields on all maturities of Treasuries moved lower.