Surprise Land Grab

Ukraine's surprise incursion into the lightly defended Russian regions of Lipetsk and Kursk prompted Russian President Putin to declare a state of emergency for those regions.

Although this invasion conducted by a handful of battalions does not in the least represent an existential threat to Russia, it is profoundly embarrassing to Putin particularly since those regions are a mere 320 miles southwest of Moscow.

It's the first time since June 1941 when Nazi Germany invaded Russia in Operation Barbarossa, the largest invasion in world history.

From a military tactical perspective, one can come to the conclusion that this maneuver will thin out an already taxed Russian force in personnel and equipment and compel them to engage the invading Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine has shrewdly calculated the regions to invade, and most importantly, those most easily to defend and hold. The aforementioned regions are defended by inexperienced conscripts and border control law enforcement, not the battle-hardened Russian troops. For this reason, Ukraine has the advantage of holding on to these territories for an extended period.

Real Estate Swap

However, I believe that the Ukrainian invasion is strategically political, not tactically military. Russia already occupies swaths of Ukrainian territory. Despite offensive efforts by both sides, the war remains at a stalemate.

Since Ukraine now occupies a modest piece of Russian territory, it enables Ukraine to leverage this real-estate as an important bargaining chip in the eventual peace negotiations.

Just like swapping prisoners of war (POW), Ukraine can swap sovereign Russian territory in exchange for most, if not all, Russian held territory in Ukraine. Although this exchange appears highly skewed in Ukraine's favor, POW swaps are rarely one for one.

Plausible Deniability

US/NATO proclaimed that they knew nothing of Ukraine's plans to invade the aforementioned Russian territories. Nonetheless, I believe the US/NATO were indeed "shocked, shocked" – as Claude Rains as Captain Renault bellowed in the movie Casablanca about illegal gambling.

By denying their participation with respect to planning or preparation, it is more difficult for Putin to claim that Russia had been invaded by the US/NATO. Even in today's hyper-electronic surveillance age, it would not be far-fetched to believe that the US/NATO had advanced knowledge of such an operation, were informed face-to-face of the date and time of invasion and provided their tacit approval.

"Land for Peace"

I believe that the Ukrainian leadership is gambling that Donald Trump will win the US election in November. Because he has the best rapport of any western leader with Putin, Trump, as a businessman, has more experience to reach a peace agreement.

Who better to negotiate a real-estate deal than the real-estate mogul himself, Donald Trump? He's had a lifetime of negotiating land deals with bellicose parties.

Russia, Ukraine, US/NATO and other influential parties have been formulating a framework for a peace agreement for many months. The remaining items are the terms & conditions, always the "devil in the details."

The Ukrainian incursion provides considerable leverage in Ukraine's favor and will incentivize Putin to surrender more territory because, politically, Putin cannot afford to have foreign forces remain on Russian soil.

Conclusion & Takeaways

Ukraine's invasion is a powerful sign that their military is not on their heels and that they are fully capable to counter-attack effectively elsewhere.

The question is whether Ukraine can maintain and hold these regions until January 2025. Even a President-elect Trump would have a powerful influence on matters in November prior to Inauguration Day.

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