SurpriseLand Grab

Ukraine’ssurprise incursion into the lightly defended Russian regions of Lipetsk andKursk prompted Russian President Putin to declare a state of emergency forthose regions.

Althoughthis invasion conducted by a handful of battalions does not in the least representan existential threat to Russia, it is profoundly embarrassing to Putinparticularly since those regions are a mere 320 miles southwest of Moscow.

It’s thefirst time since June 1941 when Nazi Germany invaded Russia in OperationBarbarossa, the largest invasion in world history.

From amilitary tactical perspective, one can come to the conclusion that thismaneuver will thin out an already taxed Russian force in personnel andequipment and compel them to engage the invading Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainehas shrewdly calculated the regions to invade, and most importantly, those mosteasily to defend and hold. The aforementioned regions are defended byinexperienced conscripts and border control law enforcement, not thebattle-hardened Russian troops. For this reason, Ukraine has the advantage ofholding on to these territories for an extended period.

RealEstate Swap

However,I believe that the Ukrainian invasion is strategically political, not tacticallymilitary. Russia already occupies swaths of Ukrainian territory. Despiteoffensive efforts by both sides, the war remains at a stalemate.

SinceUkraine now occupies a modest piece of Russian territory, it enables Ukraine toleverage this real-estate as an important bargaining chip in the eventual peacenegotiations.

Justlike swapping prisoners of war (POW), Ukraine can swap sovereign Russianterritory in exchange for most, if not all, Russian held territory in Ukraine. Althoughthis exchange appears highly skewed in Ukraine’s favor, POW swaps are rarelyone for one.

PlausibleDeniability

US/NATOproclaimed that they knew nothing of Ukraine’s plans to invade theaforementioned Russian territories. Nonetheless, I believe the US/NATO wereindeed “shocked, shocked” – as Claude Rains as Captain Renault bellowed in themovie Casablanca about illegal gambling.

Bydenying their participation with respect to planning or preparation, it is moredifficult for Putin to claim that Russia had been invaded by the US/NATO. Evenin today’s hyper-electronic surveillance age, it would not be far-fetched to believethat the US/NATO had advanced knowledge of such an operation, were informedface-to-face of the date and time of invasion and provided their tacitapproval.

“Landfor Peace”

Ibelieve that the Ukrainian leadership is gambling that Donald Trump will winthe US election in November. Because he has the best rapport of any westernleader with Putin, Trump, as a businessman, has more experience to reach apeace agreement.

Whobetter to negotiate a real-estate deal than the real-estate mogul himself, DonaldTrump? He’s had a lifetime of negotiating land deals with bellicose parties.

Russia,Ukraine, US/NATO and other influential parties have been formulating aframework for a peace agreement for many months. The remaining items are theterms & conditions, always the “devil in the details.”

TheUkrainian incursion provides considerable leverage in Ukraine’s favor and willincentivize Putin to surrender more territory because, politically, Putincannot afford to have foreign forces remain on Russian soil.

Conclusion& Takeaways

Ukraine’sinvasion is a powerful sign that their military is not on their heels and thatthey are fully capable to counter-attack effectively elsewhere.

The questionis whether Ukraine can maintain and hold these regions until January 2025. Evena President-elect Trump would have a powerful influence on matters in Novemberprior to Inauguration Day.

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