Sunday, January 12, 2025
According to the WSJ, stock analysts’ average prediction for S&P gain in 2024 was 7.4%. The index actually returned 26.3%
That kind of misjudgment would get a lot of people fired in the private sector. But financial, sports, and weather forecasters all seem to escape performance evaluation. Be careful about to whom you listen. They’re getting paid despite their performance, which is often at best inaccurate and at worst ridiculously wrong. (One year, “sports analyst” Jim Rome predicted before the football season that the Patriots wouldn’t make the playoffs. That season they won the Super Bowl. He still has his money and his media appearances)
Hell, my dog can make wild-assed predictions and does pretty well on squirrels….