Commentary From Crisis Management Expert Edward Segal, Author of the Award- Winning Book "Crisis Ahead: 101 Ways to Prepare for and Bounce Back from Disasters, Scandals, and Other Emergencies " (Nicholas Brealey)

One of the biggest challenges in trying to recover from a crisis is to declare victory over a crisis—such as Covid— before it is really over.

More than two years into the Covid crisis, it is understandable why Americans want it to be over—or assume or jump to conclusions that there is no more danger or risk. Recent declines of new Covid infections and hospitalizations have led to states relaxing or canceling their mask and other mandates.

But all of those decisions may not be based entirely on science.

For example, "In California, decisions about masking are sometimes more about geography and politics than infection rates," according to EdSource. "In more liberal areas, often with lower Covid rates, mask mandates are more likely to remain than in conservative areas with much higher infection rates."

Paul Duprex is a British scientist and advocate for vaccines and global health. He serves as the director of the University of Pittsburgh's Center for Vaccine Research and Regional Biocontainment Laboratory.

He informed 60 Minutes last year about the dangers of coronavirus variants before Delta and Omicron hit the United States.  Duprex told the news magazine on Sunday that, "'The pandemic is not over. But we're in a very different place today than we were one year ago.''

Another sign that the pandemic is not over: the release last week by the White House of a new 96-page plan to address the crisis.

Covid Reality Check

Deaths

According to Johns Hopkins University, the number of pandemic deaths around the world now exceeds six million—and counting.

Infections

According to CNN, "there have been an estimated 140 million Covid-19 infections in the U.S., the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates, even though only 74.3 million cases have been reported as of January 31.

Vaccinations

AP reported recently that, "The average number of Americans getting their first shot is down to about 90,000 a day, the lowest point since the first few days of the U.S. vaccination campaign, in December 2020. And hopes of any substantial improvement in the immediate future have largely evaporated."

But getting lulled into a false sense of complacency and security—and prematurely lowering your defenses—can help inject new life into a crisis, prolong the situation or make it worse.

President Joe Biden might have had this in mind last week when in his State of the Union message to a joint session of Congress, he said that, "We will continue to combat the [Covid-19] virus as we do other diseases. And because this is a virus that mutates and spreads, we will stay on guard."

Warning The Country

Jumping to conclusions is never a good thing to do—especially in a crisis. But some people may have jumped to the conclusion that the Covid crisis was over when Biden pointed out that, "...with 75% of adult Americans fully vaccinated and hospitalizations down by 77%, most Americans can remove their masks, return to work, stay in the classroom and move forward safely."

Preparing For New Variants

Biden warned the U.S. that, "...we must prepare for new variants. Over the past year, we've gotten much better at detecting new variants.  If necessary, we'll be able to deploy new vaccines within 100 days instead of many more months or years.  

"And, if Congress provides the funds we need, we'll have new stockpiles of tests, masks, and pills ready if needed. I cannot promise a new variant won't come. But I can promise you we'll do everything within our power to be ready if it does," he said.

New Covid Tracking Tool

The CDC recently launched Covid-19 Community Levels, a new tool to help communities decide what preventative steps to take based on the latest data. Levels can be low, medium, or high and are determined by looking at hospital beds being used, hospital admissions, and the total number of new Covid-19 cases in an area. 

The CDC advised people to, "Take precautions to protect yourself and others from Covid-19 based on the Covid-19 Community Level in your area."

The Next Pandemic

According to a recent article in Nature, "After the Omicron variant brought a fresh wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections and anxiety at the start of 2022, some nations are starting to record a decline in case numbers. But after two years of oscillating between pandemic surges and retreats, even people in these countries cannot help but wonder when the next blow will come—and what form it will take.

"I think it is inevitable that we will see new variants with varying degrees of immune evasion," says Andrew Rambaut, who studies viral evolution at the University of Edinburgh, U.K. "They could emerge from wherever there is widespread transmission."

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