The Overview

We are halfway through theunprecedented era of elections at the highest levels worldwide whose results mayfundamentally shift global relationships for decades.

Visual Global 2024 Overview

The following chart entitled 2024 Global Elections provided by Virtual Capitalistincludes the 2024 election date timeline. Although somewhat dated since mostindicated elections have passed and the UK and French elections announcedrecently, the link contains the particulars on election classification, executiveand legislative, for each country.

Global Elections | The Road tothe Championship Round

Interestingly, these electionsroughly parallel sports playoff rounds. Many elections have already takenplace, most as fair elections, and others as “engineered” such as in Russia. Theseearlier elections can be considered the quarter finals with respect to itsglobal importance.

We are currently in the midst ofthe conference finals of elections with France’s legislative battle for its577-seat assembly and the U.K.’s elections for prime minister.

It goes without saying that thechampionship round is the U.S. whose election results will dictate profoundlyhow the global community will go forward in combatting a wide spectrum of present-dayand imminent crises such as forever wars in Ukraine and Gaza, unprecedenteddebt, and inflation on all the essentials.

The United States, as the world’spreeminent military and economic superpower, will hold its unquestionably mostsignificant elections this century (and perhaps in its history) in November.

Whether President Biden or his challenger,former President Trump, wins the warp-speed changing dynamics in global affairsand economics are super-charged with advanced technology that even the best& brightest creators can barely contain.

A summary of recently heldelections:

·       India: Prime Minister Modi won a third5-year term but failed to secure an absolute majority in the legislature derisivelycalled his “lost victory”. He must seek a coalition agreement with the oppositionthat will certainly blunt his attempts at changing domestic policies including theconstitution with a super majority.

·       Turkey: President Erdogan remains inpower but lost considerable legislative clout in urban areas specificallyIstanbul (where he was the former mayor in the 1990s) and Ankara.

·       Mexico: Leftist Claudia Sheinbaum,Mexico’s first female and Jewish president, won convincingly. As a protégé ofcurrent president Obrador, there is unlikely to be seismic domestic or foreignpolicy changes.

·       South Africa: The African National CongressANC) led by President Cyril Ramaphosa has diminished political clout afterdecades of domination and is at the cusp of successfully forming a coalitioncabinet.

·       European Union: Conservative/rightwing partiesmade considerable gains in the legislature.

Electionscurrently in play are France and the UK:

·       France: The National Rally’s Jordan Bardellamay be poised to become France’s youngest prime minister after easily winningthe first round of legislative elections on June 30. A second round win with anabsolute majority (289 seats) in the 577-seat parliament would create thealways uncomfortable “cohabitation” arrangement with President Macron. Thepresident would then be responsible for foreign policy and the armed forces; theprime minister domestic policy & budget. Macron’s presidency runs until2027 unless he resigns beforehand.

·       United Kingdom’s snap election takes place onJuly 4^th. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is gambling on staying in power.Illegal immigration, inflation, crime, etc. are the same issues plaguing mostwestern countries.

·       Iran: Currently the voter turnout hasbeen unsurprisingly low since none of the autocratic candidates will offer anyimprovement over the lives of ordinary Iranians while pursing the sameaggressive foreign policy against the west and Israel. Difference face, same tyranny.

The New Geopolitical Dynamics

Geopolitical risk has becomehighly elevated because of the volatility and contentious nature of events,specifically the changing political executive and legislative landscape of manykey countries.

For this reason, it makes policy& decision-making increasingly reactive instead of proactive. The worstcase is that these complexities can create scenarios in which countries arehostages to events and are relegated to damage control.

Every country’s foreign policy iscurrently in flux and will be heavily influenced by America’s November electionresults. Until then, political pre-positioning is a lost cause.

Firstly, each of the two Americancandidates represent diametrically opposed approaches and values to governanceand foreign policy.

Secondly, despite Trump’s impressivepolling gains, the election promises to be a nail-biter.

Legislative Leverage

The re-elected leaders such asModi, Erdogan and Ramaphosa who ran amok with their party’s super-majority indomestic and foreign policies, are now forced to form coalitions.

The plans and policies ofdemocratic strongmen can be held in check due to opposition gains in thelegislature. Prime Minister Modi (India) and President Erdogan (Turkey) –re-elected to their third terms - and Ramaphosa (South Africa) – re-elected tohis second term – have dramatically diminished legislative support.

For this reason, theaforementioned leaders must form alliances with opposition parties which willblunt or delay their grandiose unilateral political and policy overreach planssuch as changes in the constitution.

Dynamics of Bureaucratic Barriers

The focus for these elections hasbeen on the national leadership. However, the historical real power of governmentslies not with the top leadership, rather with the lower levels specifically thebureaucracy.

Throughout history thebureaucracy is the administrative engine that can accelerate with sang froidefficiency or r gum up top-level policies. Regardless of the country, the bureaucratsare astoundingly experienced and efficient in their chameleon way in which theycan facilitate or stymie the mandates of elected officials, even at the highestlevels.

They can move at a snail’s paceto undermine the leadership’s credibility, such as an administrative workslowdown, known as “slow-walking” along the critical path, from approval toenactment, that foments dissatisfaction among the citizenry who will blame theleadership for its failure to meet a timetable and fulfill its promises.

The more seats won by theminority opposition, the greater leverage they have in either blocking orforcing compromise on various issues from foreign and domestic policies includingthe all-important budget that make these policies possible.

This tactic is far more subtleand more difficult to detect and/or measure which has a cascading effect throughoutthe governmental chain of command. Sometimes it has a split personality inwhich it’s collectively “on board” for foreign matters yet highly divisive ondomestic ones or visa-versa.

Furthermore, a minor shift inpower in the echelons just below those of president or prime minister cancreate a “butterfly effect”, an innocuous change whose ripples may haveoutsized results elsewhere along the chain of events.

Conclusion & Takeaways

A great global politicalalignment is in the making against a backdrop of growing implacable problemsaccelerated by policies made during and after the pandemic.

Most disturbingly, many governments,with their de facto public relations firms called the mainstream media,are conveniently ignoring or downgrading their severity. The question is howmany elephants can you fit in a room and still ignore them even when their dungis “piled high & deep”?

Conservative and far-rightmovements have penetrated all socio-economic levels making them “respectable” whichhas more to say about the failure of the center and center-left politicalleadership than the conservative groups themselves.

Finally, the newly electedconservative leadership’s performance in governing and resolving issues isdependent on the bureaucracy’s willingness to fast-track their mandates.

© Copyright2024 Cerulean Council LLC

The Cerulean Council is a NYC-basedthink-tank that provides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectivesand risk assessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.