U.S. Presidential Campaign:Already Made in Hollywood

The rapidly and often unpredictableunfolding plot during the American presidential campaign has strong parallelsto well-known Hollywood classics in which the (anti) hero faces unrelentingtrials & tribulations from outside and inside his camp.

The two notable ones are Gladiator2000) and the John Wick saga (2006-2023). With respect to the former, duringRoman times the powerful & successful General Maximus portrayed by RussellCrowe, is betrayed by the murdering son of the emperor portrayed by Joaquin Phoenix.

This new emperor, who now rulesRome by decree, fails at his attempt to kill Maximus who ends up becoming aslave gladiator. During these gladiator battles Maximus learns to “win thecrowd” and the support of the citizenry against an increasingly isolated and unpopularemperor. This leads to the climatic encounter in the Coliseum (Election Day)with the emperor. Sound familiar?

In the John Wick saga, KeanuReeves breaks the house rules and as a result, is subsequently deemed “excommunicado”while an increasingly higher bounty is placed on him as the entire assassin worldtargets him. He suffers greatly yet fights and thwarts all attempts to kill himfalling down far more stairs than Biden fell up. At the summit (Election Day),Wick has a duel with the Marquis de Gramont’s designee. Sound familiar? 

John Wick and Maximus areprobably in awe as to how Trump has survived and subsequently thrived afterrelentless attacks politically, legally and physically.

The Roman Senate had as manyvipers as today’s US Congress and the respectable looking professionalassassins who, in John Wick’s world, have their own hotel in plainer sight thanshooter Thomas Crooks.

Dynamic Changes in the Political Landscape

For an ultra-short historical perspective,the following chart entitled HowWill Trump’s Conviction Affect His Election Chances (survey May 25-28, 2024)provided by The Economist and YouGov is ancient history but provides a markeras to how rapidly the political landscape has changed in Trump’s favor an areversal of fortune for Biden.

The following chart entitled AmericansDread Vote Between Two Unpopular Candidates according to a survey conductedJune 23-24, 2024 just prior to the June 27 debate provided by The Economist andYouGov.

Since the felony convictions anddebates things have gotten rather exciting. Trump’s debate performance and grittyAmerican tough guy resiliency after the assassination attempt supersedes questionablefelony charges administered by a heavily-biased (kangaroo?) court.

Trump has become the proverbial biggestand loudest elephant in the room. As the saying goes, “He’s turning excrementinto oxygen,” amongst his supporters and those who are undecided.

Old School Street Cred

Trump has become the embodiment ofOld School toughness and fearlessness, the antidote for a morally enfeebledAmerica.

Counter-intuitively, Trump has wonthe admiration of America’s present-day power adversaries namely Putin and Xi whetherthey publicly admit it or not. As James Bond’s villains would often tell 007, “FinallyI have a worthy adversary.”

Trump has achieved a broader anddeeper support especially the impoverished demographics in the black and browncommunities of the inner cities. His First Constitutionally protected outspokennessand defiance makes him a target of the High Table and has suffered legally andphysically as they have.

For those voters who are waveringor undecided, they have a rock-solid reason to pick and vote in an historicelection regardless of political affiliation or preference.

Potential Political Checkmate

The trend we’re witnessing todayhas been in motion for many months and has accelerated due to Biden’s debatedebacle and turbocharged by the attempted assassination of Trump.

The Democrats are now cornered ina “lose-lose” scenario. This late in the game their best strategy is togracefully replace a greatly cognitively diminished Biden with an inexperiencedKamala Harris.

[The recent news of Biden testingpositive for Covid and cancelling a speech in Las Vegas represents a convenientface-saving opportunity not to seek re-election if symptoms persist].

The immediate objective is damagecontrol so that the election doesn’t turn into a humiliating landslide. Morethan likely, any votes for Biden or Harris will not be pro-Democrat, ratheranti-Trump.

Biden’s circle is rapidlybecoming smaller consisting of unwavering loyalists to the point of being insurvival mode. On the other hand, Trump’s circle is widening and ramping up.

Let’s not overlook that this ispolitics and many recognize a losing cause on a rapidly sinking ship whileothers are jumping aboard another vessel not because of political convictions,rather a team that has a considerably better chance at victory and doling out politicalspoils.

The short-term tactic probablybeing formulated by the Democrats in their political war room is how to “harass”Trump during his presidential term which will be unrelenting.

For this reason, it would behooveTrump to create a de facto political Special Forces unit, across-section of many specialties, as a buffer to handle the inevitableonslaught.

This informal arrangement willallow Trump to concentrate more fully on repairing and undoing the damage and establisha solid foundation going forward. 

Seismic Victory Verbiage

Since the attempted assassinationattempt, almost everyone from the blue-collar worker to inner city citizenry tomainstream media continually refers to Donald Trump as “President Trump” not “FormerPresident Trump” almost as if his victory in the November elections is a mereformality.

Conclusion & Takeaways

Indeed, a Trump-Vance victory inNovember is far from inevitable, however it has increasing support of thepeople themselves. Trump has indeed gone from a potential prisoner of the stateto possibly the warden of the state in a matter of months.

Politics aside, it becomes moreof an issue not whether Trump is right, rather do the American people think he’sright.

Americans are yearning fornormalcy and Trump (not the GOP) is representative of that goal and will earnestlymake his best efforts and delivering it. He’s just getting started.

© Copyright 2024Cerulean Council LLC

The CeruleanCouncil is a NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient, beyond-the-horizon,contrarian perspectives and risk assessments on geopolitical dynamics andglobal urban security.