U.S. Presidential Campaign: Already Made in Hollywood

The rapidly and often unpredictable unfolding plot during the American presidential campaign has strong parallels to well-known Hollywood classics in which the (anti) hero faces unrelenting trials & tribulations from outside and inside his camp.

The two notable ones are Gladiator (2000) and the John Wick saga (2006-2023). With respect to the former, during Roman times the powerful & successful General Maximus portrayed by Russell Crowe, is betrayed by the murdering son of the emperor portrayed by Joaquin Phoenix.

This new emperor, who now rules Rome by decree, fails at his attempt to kill Maximus who ends up becoming a slave gladiator. During these gladiator battles Maximus learns to "win the crowd" and the support of the citizenry against an increasingly isolated and unpopular emperor. This leads to the climatic encounter in the Coliseum (Election Day) with the emperor. Sound familiar?

In the John Wick saga, Keanu Reeves breaks the house rules and as a result, is subsequently deemed "excommunicado" while an increasingly higher bounty is placed on him as the entire assassin world targets him. He suffers greatly yet fights and thwarts all attempts to kill him falling down far more stairs than Biden fell up. At the summit (Election Day), Wick has a duel with the Marquis de Gramont's designee. Sound familiar?

John Wick and Maximus are probably in awe as to how Trump has survived and subsequently thrived after relentless attacks politically, legally and physically.

The Roman Senate had as many vipers as today's US Congress and the respectable looking professional assassins who, in John Wick's world, have their own hotel in plainer sight than shooter Thomas Crooks.

Dynamic Changes in the Political Landscape

For an ultra-short historical perspective, the link to the following chart entitled How Will Trump's Conviction Affect His Election Chances (survey May 25-28, 2024) provided by The Economist and YouGov is ancient history but provides a marker as to how rapidly the political landscape has changed in Trump's favor an a reversal of fortune for Biden.

The link to the following chart entitled Americans Dread Vote Between Two Unpopular Candidates according to a survey conducted June 23-24, 2024 just prior to the June 27 debate provided by The Economist and YouGov.

Since the felony convictions and debates things have gotten rather exciting. Trump's debate performance and gritty American tough guy resiliency after the assassination attempt supersedes questionable felony charges administered by a heavily-biased (kangaroo?) court.

Trump has become the proverbial biggest and loudest elephant in the room. As the saying goes, "He's turning excrement into oxygen," amongst his supporters and those who are undecided.

Old School Street Cred

Trump has become the embodiment of Old School toughness and fearlessness, the antidote for a morally enfeebled America.

Counter-intuitively, Trump has won the admiration of America's present-day power adversaries namely Putin and Xi whether they publicly admit it or not. As James Bond's villains would often tell 007, "Finally I have a worthy adversary."

Trump has achieved a broader and deeper support especially the impoverished demographics in the black and brown communities of the inner cities. His First Constitutionally protected outspokenness and defiance makes him a target of the High Table and has suffered legally and physically as they have.

For those voters who are wavering or undecided, they have a rock-solid reason to pick and vote in an historic election regardless of political affiliation or preference.

Potential Political Checkmate

The trend we're witnessing today has been in motion for many months and has accelerated due to Biden's debate debacle and turbocharged by the attempted assassination of Trump.

The Democrats are now cornered in a "lose-lose" scenario. This late in the game their best strategy is to gracefully replace a greatly cognitively diminished Biden with an inexperienced Kamala Harris.

[The recent news of Biden testing positive for Covid and cancelling a speech in Las Vegas represents a convenient face-saving opportunity not to seek re-election if symptoms persist].

The immediate objective is damage control so that the election doesn't turn into a humiliating landslide. More than likely, any votes for Biden or Harris will not be pro-Democrat, rather anti-Trump.

Biden's circle is rapidly becoming smaller consisting of unwavering loyalists to the point of being in survival mode. On the other hand, Trump's circle is widening and ramping up.

Let's not overlook that this is politics and many recognize a losing cause on a rapidly sinking ship while others are jumping aboard another vessel not because of political convictions, rather a team that has a considerably better chance at victory and doling out political spoils.

The short-term tactic probably being formulated by the Democrats in their political war room is how to "harass" Trump during his presidential term which will be unrelenting.

For this reason, it would behoove Trump to create a de facto political Special Forces unit, a cross-section of many specialties, as a buffer to handle the inevitable onslaught.

This informal arrangement will allow Trump to concentrate more fully on repairing and undoing the damage and establish a solid foundation going forward.

Seismic Victory Verbiage

Since the attempted assassination attempt, almost everyone from the blue-collar worker to inner city citizenry to mainstream media continually refers to Donald Trump as "President Trump" not "Former President Trump" almost as if his victory in the November elections is a mere formality.

Conclusion & Takeaways

Indeed, a Trump-Vance victory in November is far from inevitable, however it has increasing support of the people themselves. Trump has indeed gone from a potential prisoner of the state to possibly the warden of the state in a matter of months.

Politics aside, it becomes more of an issue not whether Trump is right, rather do the American people think he's right.

Americans are yearning for normalcy and Trump (not the GOP) is representative of that goal and will earnestly make his best efforts tp deliver it. He's just getting started.

© Copyright 2024 Cerulean Council LLC

The Cerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and risk assessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.