A quote from Vladmir Lenin of the Soviet Union brilliantlydescribes the present-day situation of American politics, “There are decadeswhen nothing happens, there are weeks in which a decade happens.”

The Trump Story: Man of Destiny?

The GOP has become a strong unified front behind apolitical leader of deserved mythical proportions who has emerged from the detritushoisted upon him by his enemies.

The lightning bolt quick, spectacular chain of eventsoccurred in close succession in Trump’s favor with the added bonus whenprominent Democrat supporters successfully persuaded President Biden to drophis re-election efforts.

Counter-intuitively these events may give the GOPfaithful the illusion that Trump’s election victory in November is assured givinga role-reversal illusion that Trump is the incumbent and Harris the challenger.

Kamala Harris: Front runner or Placeholder?

Everyone is quite familiar with Trump’s well-publicizedCV as businessman and US President, but few have an overview of Kamala Harris’sprofessional experience.

The following chart entitled Who Is Kamala Harris?, is the CV of Kamala Harrisprovided Statista.

Two Underdogs

In a strange way, both candidates are underdogs. Trumphas overcome a litany of obstacles and literally a hail of lead, to secure theGOP nomination for president. For this reason, he has gained the admiration andperhaps the votes, of the wavering and undecided.

As the first female and non-white vice president, Harrisis at the cusp of securing an overwhelming vote for nomination for presidentfrom the Democrats at the DNC in Chicago in late August.

Since Biden’s withdrawal from seeking re-election, shehas secured windfall political contributions over $126 million.

Historically, incumbents rarely “go quietly into thenight”. The incumbent (or incumbent party) is resource-rich, well-positionedand maintains the high ground from where they can more easily defend and counterattack.

However, Harris’s popularity rating, at the same depthlevel as Biden’s, has yet to show an increase in altitude.

Trump: Pros & Cons

Trump has reached the ultimate of fearlessness. After acontentious first term (2012-2016) the world has changed dramatically. Sittingon the sidelines has provided a literally battle-hardened Trump a grand finale opportunityas the savior of democracy as interpreted by “divine intervention” on the July13 assassination attempt.

The downside is that, lost in this emotional surge, ifTrump wins, he’ll be a one-term president. His political Achilles heel is hisage (78) and eventual cognitive slippage during that term.

For this reason, this explains why so many high-rankingGOP politicians, Trump’s former and far younger adversaries, are jumpingenthusiastically aboard the Trump Express to get an inside track for the 2028presidential election. Again, the incumbent party has its advantages.

Harris: Pros & Cons

With respect to the public optics and actual performance thepast 3½ years, Harris can barely be considered qualified even as Vice President,a period replete with nonsensical ramblings during interviews and presentations.

On the other hand, there’s the possibility that she’sfollowing the old adage of the student/underling not to usurp or outshine one’smaster, which I believe she’s done a masterful job.

Biden is still president but in title only. One wonderswhether Harris has actually been the person (albeit figurehead) behind the OvalOffice curtain as the working de facto head of state while Biden hasbeen the de facto lame duck.

For this reason, it’s plausible that her “bimbo” behaviorhas been a ruse, playing the fool, so as not to challenge Biden in any shape orform.

Another example is the young bride who marries theelderly wealthy man, craftily pre-positioning herself to inherit the monetaryand political rewards. It seems like this is a role she reprises with AcademyAward winning skill.

She’s a prosecutor in her professional DNA with 3½ yearsof on-the-job, high level political training. During this time it’s possiblethat she has been groomed since Biden’s election win in 2020 who was alreadysuffering cognitive issues.

Now unchained and unrestrained at the highest levels whilefollowing the cues of her handlers, she could pose a serious threat to the Trump-JDVance ticket.

Vice Presidents Emerging from the Shadows

• Harry Truman succeeded FranklinD. Roosevelt after his death in April 1945 and won the election in an upset in1948.
• Lyndon B. Johnson succeeded theassassinated John F. Kennedy in 1963 and won the election in 1964. He declined are-election nomination in March 1968.
• George H.W. Bush succeededPresident Reagan who reached his maximum two-term limit along withneurocognitive decline, winning the 1988 election.

Indeed, Harris cannot compare with the above VPs. However,her Democratic Party political machinery is far more powerful with 21^stcentury media tools and oligarch level donations than either of the Democraticor GOP of the aforementioned VP victories.

Democrats’ Frantic Damage Control

In the meantime, the Democrats’ abysmal successionplanning to replace Biden as late as July is baffling. They’ve made a periloushigh stakes gamble of losing an election with a late replacement to maintaintheir position in the White House.

I believe that there’s an intense power struggle withinthe Democratic Party. They are desperate to stop the internal politicalhemorrhaging and establish a coherent narrative.

Even Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJ), a headstrong, proud Texan,for political and personal reasons, had the sense to announce that he wasn’trunning for re-election in March (1968). Although the Democrats lost theelection by a hair’s breath, it provided the Democrats enough time to nominatea candidate (Hubert Humphrey) to successfully challenge Richard Nixon thatNovember.

Pre-Election Day for President Kamala

Although Joe Biden announced that he won’t seekre-election, he is still the president until January 2025. Nonetheless, hisdeclining neurocognitive abilities and other health-related matters have a highrisk of a “Niagara Falls trajectory” that may incapacitate him.

If this should occur before the Democratic NationalConvention (DNC) in late August or Election Day, Kamala Harris would becomepresident. It’s anyone’s guess whether her elevation to president in thistimeframe will boost or hinder her chances of winning the election.

New Political Landscape

Like a cinematic political thriller, the campaignlandscape has changed profoundly different within the last month. It began withBiden’s debate debacle, the attempted assassination of Trump, followed by Biden’swithdrawal for re-election and the emergence of VP Harris to the forefront.

The upcoming election results will be determined alongthe lines of the late baseball Hall of Fame manager Tommy Lasorda who said, “No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-thirdof your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of yourgames. It's the other third that makes the difference.”

Inany election, both the Democrats and GOP have their ardent supporters and willvote along the party lines regardless of the weakness of their candidate(s).It’s the other third of the citizenry who they have to win over.

Until the elections take place and the votes are tallied,no one has won or lost yet.

Conclusions & Takeaways

The upcoming presidential election will be far closerthan anyone can imagine, a possible nail-biter. Whichever party loses, therewill be bitterness and endless accusations of improprieties.

Expect an invigorated Democrat party as Kamala Harris willbe an unexpected handful to the Trump campaign team.

Thanks in large part to Americans’ short-term memory,earlier alleged transgressions by Trump and bimbo-like behavior by Harris, havealready been forgotten. It’s a sprint to the finish. Nothing counts except thehere & now.

© Copyright 2024 Cerulean Council LLC

The Cerulean Council is a NYC-basedthink-tank that provides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectivesand risk assessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.