The Oster Conspiracy

As the Ukrainian military positionbecomes ever more untenable at the front lines, low morale amongst the battle-wearysoldiers and a pause in military aid (except intelligence reports) by theAmericans, President Zelensky seems to be determined to carry on the fight.

For this reason, it would not beunthinkable that a 21^st century version of the Oster Conspiracy maybe strongly considered by high-ranking Ukrainian officials.

What was the Oster Conspiracy? In1938, Nazi Germany was negotiating with France and the UK with respect toobtaining the Sudetenland region in Czechoslovakia. Like Ukraine today, Czechoslovakiawas not involved in these negotiations.

Lt. Colonel Hans Oster, deputyhead of the Abwehr (German intelligence agency) along with other Germangenerals, believed that Germany was unprepared and not strong enough to enter awar should negotiations fail. Although Germany had built up its military since Hitler’sascension to power in 1933, an invasion of the Sudetenland would requiretraversing difficult terrain at the border which Czechs could easily defend.Complicating matters was if Britain decided to enter the war if Germanyattacked.

For this reason, to avertdisaster, Lt. Col. Oster, along with many high-ranking German officers, plannedto overthrow the Reich by seizing critical governmental and military facilitiesthat included either arresting or assassinating Hitler himself.

This plan was cancelled becauseBritain acquiesced the Sudetenland to Nazi Germany without firing a shot.

Deja Vu

Fast-forward to 2025 and manysimilar elements are in place in Ukraine. The aforementioned military andpolitical conditions create a strong possibility that an inner circle ofhigh-ranking Ukrainian military officers and governmental officials, havealready drafted specific plans for an internal coup to save Ukraine from beingwiped off the map by the Russians.

One of their fears is thatUkraine may suffer the same military defeat as the Assad regime in Syria with asudden rapid and total collapse on the front lines with Russian troops arrivingin Kyiv within weeks, if not sooner.

The trigger to initiate thisoperation is Zelensky’s abominable behavior in his discussions with PresidentTrump at the White House. Even the Ukrainian ambassador was visibly distraughtand embarrassed as Zelensky went “off-script” creating irreparable diplomaticdamage.

Such heated conversations at thehighest levels are par for the course behind closed doors. Trump was not to bedisrespected, outshone and lectured in his own White House. In fact, Trump’sstrong responses were measured. However, Zelensky felt compelled to make anemotional public statement.

Recent mainstream articlesindicate that Zelensky is far more amenable to ceasefire/peace talks, probablywell aware of the aforementioned possibility. Perhaps unnamed source(s) gavehim “an offer he can’t refuse” reminding him of real politik whichexplained his sudden behavior modification. Notwithstanding, until Zelensky immediatelyfollows up with actionable efforts, he will be under this proverbial Sword of Damocles. 

US Housekeeping Seal of Approval

Any cessation of hostilities andeventual peace agreement can be made with or without Zelensky. With respect tooptics and good public relations, Zelensky, even in the role as a puppet, legitimizesthe final agreements.

The US is an integral componentin negotiating the terms of a ceasefire and eventual peace agreement. The EU ispolitically and militarily impotent in these matters and serves at best as anintermediary.

Much to Zelensky’s chagrin, hewill shortly become politically irrelevant with no role in the post-war,reconstruction era of Ukraine. The US will certainly demand free elections resultingin the Ukrainian citizenry voting out Zelensky.

On the other side of the table, theRussians are far from darlings in this matter. However, for years they haverepeatedly put forward “fair & reasonable” proposals to end the hostilities.During this period the Biden administration and EU leadership have deliberatelydithered on ending the conflict.

Furthermore, defense industries worldwide,notably American and EU, have prospered on the hundreds of daily deaths ofUkrainians and Russians. It begs the question as to which elected high-levelgovernment officials profited from the defense industry stock surge.

Staunching the EconomicHemorrhaging

The war has been extraordinarilycostly for the US and its allies in maintaining a stalemate with Russian forcesto prevent a breakthrough.

The lesson learned in thisconflict is that 21^st century warfare is stupefyingly expensive,even in a regional conflict such as Ukraine, draining government coffers at anunsustainable rate and running well ahead of “creative accounting” to paperover deficits.

The following chart entitled Who Is Funding Ukraine’s WarEffort?provided by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a non-profit economicresearch institute and think tank located in Kiel, Germany, indicates breakdownof funding sources and amounts by country and to which category(ies).

For deeper context, the followingchart entitled The Countries Sending the MostAid to Ukraine,provided by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Ukraine SupportTracker, indicates each supporting country’s aid as a percentage of their GDPand category of aid (military, financial and humanitarian).

Done Deal

Much has been discussed about theverbal meltdown at the White House between Zelensky, Trump and JD Vance.However, I believe that the unilateral discussions between the US and Russia inestablishing the ceasefire and peace agreement groundwork have already beendiscussed and established in detailed draft form. 

Additionally, the terms &conditions include the critically political face-saving components that willfacilitate its agreement. Just as importantly are the unofficial verbalpromises and understandings.

Unlike during the Biden administration,Trump carries far more credibility with Putin. Interestingly, Putin knows thathe’s negotiating with Trump and his hand-picked cabinet members and associates,not the GOP. For this reason, any agreement under Trump, and in the futureunder JD Vance in 2028, will be respected.

There’s nothing overtly nefariousabout how these deals, governmental and business, are formulated and worked outwell before any official meeting or announcement is made. This explains how complexagreements can supposedly be reached almost overnight.

Conclusion & Takeaway

I believe that a ceasefire willbe reached by the end of this month (March 2025) with or without Zelensky.During this time, if there is blockage or pushback from Zelensky, then onemight see the Oster Plan activated.

The huge beneficiaries and economicwinners in the post-war reconstruction are China, the US and Russia. 

·       China needs the huge &lucrative reconstruction contracts to offset their brutal economic deflationarysituation.

·       The aforementioned applies to manyUS industries and the supporting sources & services.

·       Finally, Russia gets mostsanctions lifted and is able to recoup hard currency through legal energysales.

Hopefully, the enormous savingsachieved with a ceasefire and DOGE’s efforts will be invested into essential goods& services in the US to alleviate inflationary pressures on the American citizenry.

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