The Oster Conspiracy
As the Ukrainian military position becomes ever more untenable at the front lines, low morale amongst the battle-weary soldiers and a pause in military aid (except intelligence reports) by the Americans, President Zelensky seems to be determined to carry on the fight.
For this reason, it would not be unthinkable that a 21st century version of the Oster Conspiracy may be strongly considered by high-ranking Ukrainian officials.
What was the Oster Conspiracy? In 1938, Nazi Germany was negotiating with France and the UK with respect to obtaining the Sudetenland region in Czechoslovakia. Like Ukraine today, Czechoslovakia was not involved in these negotiations.
Lt. Colonel Hans Oster, deputy head of the Abwehr (German intelligence agency) along with other German generals, believed that Germany was unprepared and not strong enough to enter a war should negotiations fail. Although Germany had built up its military since Hitler's ascension to power in 1933, an invasion of the Sudetenland would require traversing difficult terrain at the border which Czechs could easily defend. Complicating matters was if Britain decided to enter the war if Germany attacked.
For this reason, to avert disaster, Lt. Col. Oster, along with many high-ranking German officers, planned to overthrow the Reich by seizing critical governmental and military facilities that included either arresting or assassinating Hitler himself.
This plan was cancelled because Britain acquiesced the Sudetenland to Nazi Germany without firing a shot.
Deja Vu
Fast-forward to 2025 and many similar elements are in place in Ukraine. The aforementioned military and political conditions create a strong possibility that an inner circle of high-ranking Ukrainian military officers and governmental officials, have already drafted specific plans for an internal coup to save Ukraine from being wiped off the map by the Russians.
One of their fears is that Ukraine may suffer the same military defeat as the Assad regime in Syria with a sudden rapid and total collapse on the front lines with Russian troops arriving in Kyiv within weeks, if not sooner.
The trigger to initiate this operation is Zelensky's abominable behavior in his discussions with President Trump at the White House. Even the Ukrainian ambassador was visibly distraught and embarrassed as Zelensky went "off-script" creating irreparable diplomatic damage.
Such heated conversations at the highest levels are par for the course behind closed doors. Trump was not to be disrespected, outshone and lectured in his own White House. In fact, Trump's strong responses were measured. However, Zelensky felt compelled to make an emotional public statement.
Recent mainstream articles indicate that Zelensky is far more amenable to ceasefire/peace talks, probably well aware of the aforementioned possibility. Perhaps unnamed source(s) gave him "an offer he can't refuse" reminding him of real politik which explained his sudden behavior modification. Notwithstanding, until Zelensky immediately follows up with actionable efforts, he will be under this proverbial Sword of Damocles.
US Housekeeping Seal of Approval
Any cessation of hostilities and eventual peace agreement can be made with or without Zelensky. With respect to optics and good public relations, Zelensky, even in the role as a puppet, legitimizes the final agreements.
The US is an integral component in negotiating the terms of a ceasefire and eventual peace agreement. The EU is politically and militarily impotent in these matters and serves at best as an intermediary.
Much to Zelensky's chagrin, he will shortly become politically irrelevant with no role in the post-war, reconstruction era of Ukraine. The US will certainly demand free elections resulting in the Ukrainian citizenry voting out Zelensky.
On the other side of the table, the Russians are far from darlings in this matter. However, for years they have repeatedly put forward "fair & reasonable" proposals to end the hostilities. During this period the Biden administration and EU leadership have deliberately dithered on ending the conflict.
Furthermore, defense industries worldwide, notably American and EU, have prospered on the hundreds of daily deaths of Ukrainians and Russians. It begs the question as to which elected high-level government officials profited from the defense industry stock surge.
Staunching the Economic Hemorrhaging
The war has been extraordinarily costly for the US and its allies in maintaining a stalemate with Russian forces to prevent a breakthrough.
The lesson learned in this conflict is that 21st century warfare is stupefyingly expensive, even in a regional conflict such as Ukraine, draining government coffers at an unsustainable rate and running well ahead of "creative accounting" to paper over deficits.
The link to the following chart entitled Who Is Funding Ukraine's War Effort? provided by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a non-profit economic research institute and think tank located in Kiel, Germany, indicates breakdown of funding sources and amounts by country and to which category(ies).
For deeper context, the link to the following chart entitled The Countries Sending the Most Aid to Ukraine, provided by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Ukraine Support Tracker, indicates each supporting country's aid as a percentage of their GDP and category of aid (military, financial and humanitarian).
The link to the following chart entitled Top 10 Countries Receiving US Foreign Aid in 2024 provided by Foreign Assistance (US Department of State and USAID) is a reminder of the staggering amount of aid the US has provided:
Done Deal
Much has been discussed about the verbal meltdown at the White House between Zelensky, Trump and JD Vance. However, I believe that the unilateral discussions between the US and Russia in establishing the ceasefire and peace agreement groundwork have already been discussed and established in detailed draft form.
Additionally, the terms & conditions include the critically political face-saving components that will facilitate its agreement. Just as importantly are the unofficial verbal promises and understandings.
Unlike during the Biden administration, Trump carries far more credibility with Putin. Interestingly, Putin knows that he's negotiating with Trump and his hand-picked cabinet members and associates, not the GOP. For this reason, any agreement under Trump, and in the future under JD Vance in 2028, will be respected.
There's nothing overtly nefarious about how these deals, governmental and business, are formulated and worked out well before any official meeting or announcement is made. This explains how complex agreements can supposedly be reached almost overnight.
Conclusion & Takeaway
I believe that a ceasefire will be reached by the end of this month (March 2025) with or without Zelensky. During this time, if there is blockage or pushback from Zelensky, then one might see the Oster Plan activated.
The huge beneficiaries and economic winners in the post-war reconstruction are China, the US and Russia.
- China needs the huge & lucrative reconstruction contracts to offset their brutal economic deflationary situation.
- The aforementioned applies to many US industries and the supporting sources & services.
- Finally, Russia gets most sanctions lifted and is able to recoup hard currency through legal energy sales.
Hopefully, the enormous savings achieved with a ceasefire and DOGE's efforts will be invested into essential goods & services in the US to alleviate inflationary pressures on the American citizenry.
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