Germans have voted, but now what? The Christian-Democrats (CDU), under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, have come out on top, as expected—but now begins the hard part: building a coalition that will secure Merz a majority in the German Bundestag.

The AfD has offered talks with the CDU, and some journalists asked me today whether Merz would work together with the AfD now that the election is over. As I explain in my latest video on YouTube, the answer is no. He will certainly not do that. Politics in Germany is rather ideological, and he has categorically ruled out such cooperation during the campaign. Even if he wanted to, his own party wouldn’t follow him.

Frankly, I also think the AfD in Germany is not ready to govern. This would require a clear commitment to the European Union and to the euro. There is, of course, the question of the war in Ukraine, on which the CDU and the AfD hold very different opinions. Most importantly, the AfD would have to unequivocally distance itself from right-wing elements. In other words, the AfD has not done its homework to seriously engage in negotiations to form a government.

Furthermore, stability is extremely important in German polity. I once watched the TV coverage of every German Election Night since 1994, and it’s striking how interchangeable they are. In every election cycle, politicians on Election Night essentially say the same thing. Two recurring themes are present every time, namely that Germany needs a stable government to face the tremendous challenges the country is confronting. I think this desire for stability is the reason why the most likely scenario now is the so-called Grand Coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats—which in terms of numbers is actually not that grand anymore but would certainly be more stable than an adventure with the AfD.