The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board (EB) wrote a piece last week about the return of bond vigilantes to London. According to the EB, investors were unhappy with the budget just unveiled by the new Labour Party government in Britain, considering it heavy on both tax increases and spending. What caught my attention was the level of deficits that reportedly got the vigilantes worried, and how those numbers stack up against America’s budget shortfalls.

For the period 2025-30, the new U.K. budget contemplates £362 ($465.9) billion in new spending and £179 ($230.4) billion in new tax revenue, which will require £183 ($235.5) billion of borrowing over that timeframe. Those numbers look like small beer however, when compared with U.S. budget deficits. At $28.9 trillion, the size of the U.S. economy is much larger than the U.K.’s $3.5 trillion, skewing the comparison. But the shortfalls as a percentage of each country’s GDP tell a clearer story.

A published British House of Commons document shows that for fiscal year 2023/24, the U.K. budget deficit was £120 ($154.4) billion, representing 4.4 percent of GDP. In contrast, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that for fiscal year 2024, the U.S. federal budget deficit was $1.83 trillion, which equated to 6.5 percent of GDP.

Projections for future budget deficits also paint an uglier picture for the U.S. The Economist estimates that even without a flood of additional spending by the next administration, the U.S. federal budget deficit will average over 5.5 percent of GDP for the remainder of this decade. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), a nonpartisan U.K. agency, expects the U.K. budget deficit to decline to 2.1 percent of GDP by 2030.

The EB noted that following the release of the new U.K. government’s budget, the yield on gilts quickly rose by 25 basis points to 4.57 percent, a one-year high, with sterling falling to $1.287 per pound from $1.30 earlier in the week. But those numbers are quite tame relative to what happened after the Liz Truss “mini-budget” fiasco in October 2022. Gilt yields soared by 120 basis points within two days after the release of that budget, and subsequently rose by as much as 200 basis points, precipitating the crisis that forced Ms. Truss to resign as prime minister. The EB’s talk about bond vigilantes returning to London last week was therefore a bit surprising.

With the Federal Reserve continuing its fight against inflation, and with fluctuations in incoming U.S. economic data, there has been some yield volatility in the U.S public debt market as well in recent months. But there hasn’t been similar talk about bond vigilantes being on the prowl in Washington. Admittedly, the U.S. has a handful of things going in its favor. Because of the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, and the sheer size and high liquidity of the U.S. government bond market, investor demand for Treasuries is perennially strong, which helps keep yields lower than they would be otherwise. Disparity in economic growth projections is another factor. The IMF currently estimates that over the next five years, real GDP growth for the U.S. will average 2.1 percent, while that of the U.K. is expected to be just under 1.5 percent. Theoretically, the higher economic growth rate should give the U.S. greater ability to repay its debt. But that cannot be a source of comfort when the deficit-to-GDP ratio is an eye-popping 5.5 percent.

When it comes to fiscal incontinence, the U.S. is the big kahuna. Some of that deficit spending is certainly necessary—to fix aging infrastructure, for example. Large stimulus packages during the pandemic have helped keep the U.S. economy on a solid footing while those of other nations have struggled. But it is also a widely held view in this country that we have been living well beyond our means for a long while, in ways that are not sustainable. The bad news for us is that there is not much political will to confront the problem.

Perhaps the bond vigilantes could don some spooky Halloween costumes and go around knocking on some doors in the neighborhood of official Washington. We need someone or something to put some fear into our policymakers. The EB should focus a bit less on London and shine the spotlight brightly on Washington instead.

Author’s note: This article was written before Tuesday’s presidential election. On Wednesday morning, after the results were announced, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose sharply, increasing by 23 basis points. It was the largest daily increase since 2020, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. Market-watchers attributed the spike to investor fears that some of the president-elect’s policies will substantially worsen the U.S. federal budget deficit. Additionally, there are worries that his threatened tariffs will be inflationary. So perhaps the bond vigilantes are starting to wake up in Washington as well.