Party of Jefferson Davis 1860 and Trump 2020

The Democratic Party was the party of the South in 1860.  But in 1964 that all changed with the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.  Opposition to black rights was so fierce that Barry Goldwater in 1964 and Richard Nixon in 1968 moved the Republican Party into the South to take advantage.  54 years later the South has completely taken over the Republican Party.  Southern thinking has emerged as the dominant thinking of the Republican Party.  The new Republican Party, based in the South, become the party of insurgency on January 6, 2021.  Both insurrections came out of the South.  The Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln has become the party of the Confederacy (Insurrection), whose president was Jefferson Davis.

Timing

The 160 years between insurrections in America is almost a perfect three Kondratiev cycles.

Three cycles of 54 years are 162 years, a mere two years off a perfect fit.  The cycle is primarily economic, with the high growth period running from 1994 to 2021, and with the wealth cycle peaking on 2021.  About 40% of the time Kondratiev cycle events follow the model, and about another 40% of the time it will be one or two years off center, and 20% of the time the fit will be several years off, up to 9 or 11 years, but usually much less.

Other Cycles

The major war cycle is the main political cycle every 54 years.  The civil rights cycle is also 54 years, about 16 years before the major war.  The major pandemic cycle is two cycles, 2x54=108.  The Spanish flu in 1918 and COVID in 2020, 102 years is six years off a perfect 108.  Then there is the insurrection cycle already discussed.  The common denominator is rising tensions at the end of the economic cycle as new national winners and losers emerge.  Today the tensions are all around us.  Change produces tensions.  The tensions today are enhanced by the pandemic as crime has soared worldwide.

Crime

Gun crimes have soared under Trump doubling by the end of his term.  Normally crime is a function of the level of military spending.  Trump's emphasis on violence is the leading suspect of this very unusual phenomena.

Military Spending

Rises in military spending always reduces manufacturing jobs proportionately.  Obama had a military buildup in 2016 that partially ensured Hillary Clinton's loss as jobs were lost in the three Northern manufacturing states that swung both elections and later tariffs on China began a manufacturing recession in late 2019 before the pandemic crashed the economy.  Military buildups helped Trump in 2016 and helped doom him in 2020.

New Book Review:  

https://www.academia.edu/69983378/Weather_Wealth_and_Wars_Empire_and_Climate_Discoveries_Change_Everything

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2022, September 23), "Insurrections Then and Now" Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Insurrections-Then-and-Now,2022276142.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2022 with accelerating interest from the deciding Norwegians.  A consistently growing pattern shows intense interest in my work on my expertclick.com website; daily "hard looks" per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 200 to 322 to 347 by the October 8^th, 2021 Nobel Peace Prize announcement time.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com 

Info: www.realeconomy.com