Monday, March 31, 2025
This release consists of an edited number of power point slides in the following conference presentation on March 28, 2025, virtually presented in Hawaii.
Science: Peace Economics, Empire, and Climate Cycles
Second Honolulu Education Conference, INTESDA March 28, 2025
Professor Robert Reuschlein, CPA, MBA,
EE (UW Madison), Ed.D. (Edgewood College)
https://independent.academia.edu/RobertReuschlein
bobreuschlein@gmail.com
Nature of the Problem
"Kondratiev waves are an outdated and abandoned concept that doesn't hold water. Economies are not cyclical." (Reddit: October 15, 2024) (both are lies)
Reality: In a 90% numbers phobic society, the 10% who love numbers, engineers and scientists like me, are misunderstood or put down by social science "word" people, as indicated above.
Science Solution
Economists are social scientists that admit their struggles with macroeconomics, so they stick with microeconomics. One exasperated economics chair said to me: "macroeconomics, whatever that is."
When I took "Statistics for Engineers" we covered three times as much material as "Statistics for Business" for the same 3 cr.
Model Building, Wargaming
My uncle, an engineer, who worked on the Manhatton Project in Hanford Washington, saw me playing, building things, and predicted I'd become an engineer.
My dad, a CPA, could not understand me when I talked science.
My calculus teacher urged me to learn more math so I tied for highest MAA math contest in the state in 1967.
My wargaming mentor, Gary Gygax, went on to invent "Dungeons and Dragons" (1974) and appointed me "Coordinator of Wargaming" circa 1970, after defeating him soundly in "Battle of the Bulge" 1966. His son said he talked about me all the time (2017).
Economic Engineering, Not Economics
As the Reddit quote shows, the social science of economics is incapable of recognizing that cycle theory applies to them. Military Spending depletes manufacturing also must be recognized to model well.
Differential Equations would be a required course in engineering economics. All differential equations are solved by a sinusoidal equation. Sinusoidal solutions fit AC current but not DC. (electrical engineering degree).
Using a sinusoid for the Kondratiev wave makes my economic model stunningly accurate. Not using a sinusoid leads to the ignorant Reddit quote.
Stagflation is cyclical, not randomly occurring like economists suggest, circa1982.
Accuracy In Military Spending Economics
R=-.997 Manufacturing Productivity (G7+2) (1960-1978, Sivard/Reuschlein)
R=-.993 Capital Investment (NATO 4+1) (1960-1979, Sivard/Reuschlein)
R=.999 Productivity 3+2 factor US Model (1920-1996, Reuschlein) (77 yrs)
R=-.97 Economic Growth vs Net Military Burden (1941-1948 WWII, Reuschlein)
Global Warming hurts the Economy
A NASA study shows that productivity drops 18% at 85 degrees F. and 37% at 95 degrees F. (This applies especially to construction/agriculture)
The colder nations are generally the wealthier nations.
Most tropical nations are poor.
A ninety-five-year study of the US economy showed that in 16 of 19 five-year periods, when the US heated up the economy got worse, when the US cooled the economy got better.
Military Controlled Government: Regional Economics R=.97
1)No major component of the US federal budget is extremely unequally and politically distributed among the 50 states than military spending.
2)This gives overwhelming political clout to those in charge of the military budget, especially presidents, congressional leaders, and military committees.
3)Those regions and states that get more or less than their pro rata (tax load) share of the military budget gain or lose economically & politically.
4)Military spending depletes the productive economy and redistributes to the regional "warfare" economy ("middle class" welfare).
Imperial Presidency
Rome started out as a Republic with a powerful Senate, but ended as an Empire ruled by an Emperor.
America started out as a Republic but with WWII changed to the Imperial Presidency.
Rome had a crazy emperor, Caligula, America has a crazy president, Trump.
Presidential powers in Foreign Policy today often overextend into starting wars, with the Congress an after-thought.
Empire, Military Spending, Medievalism, Power valued over Achievement, Violence, Corruption, have lots in common
Economic Pattern of War
The second largest war happens half way through the high economic growth period. The high growth period is 1994-2021. Opponent is usually a smaller power.
The largest war happens at the end of the high growth period just as wealth peaks and three years into the low growth period with the last cooling. Opponents are usually #1 power vs #2.
The high growth period creates a new world peck order of nations and these two wars test that new peck order. Wealth is maximized at the end of the period, when the major war occurs.
Evaporation
85% of solar radiation hitting planet Earth is used to vaporize water. (Schneider, 1983)
This percentage varies depending on the amount of water in the area where the sunlight lands.
90% vaporization over oceans leaves 10% for direct heating.
73% vaporization over land leaves 27% for direct heating. (56% over pure land without rivers & lakes) Land has about three times the warming rate of ocean.
Land drives the cycle: Land heats faster than ocean. Land leads the way in either warming or cooling trends.
Cooling trends increase the economic growth rate, warming trends decrease the economic growth rate.
Land vs. Ocean
Land (North Hem.) heating up and the Ocean (South Hem.) cooling off drives the cycle dynamics on planet earth.
When you discount the poles, the North has three times as much land as South.
Seasonal temperature variation (July to January) in the Northern Hemisphere is three times that of the Southern Hemisphere: (27 f. to 9 f.) (15 C. to 5 C.)
Teaching Peace Economics
https://www.academia.edu/11786950/FRAMEWORK_For_Academic_Class_six_pages_2015
Please cite this work as follows: Reuschlein, Robert. (2025, March 31), "Science in Peace Economics" Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Science-in-Peace-Economics,2025309829.aspx
Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2025 with growing interest from the deciding Norwegians. October 10th, 2025 is the Nobel Peace Prize announcement time. Events of the last three years (new record this month) particularly suggest I've reached a very high level of consideration by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Top five or higher.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
Info: www.realeconomy.com