Saturday, March 12, 2022
Lviv Region
The Westernmost part of Ukraine, the Lviv region, was until 1939 part of Poland. When the Stalin Hitler pact of 1939 agreed to divide Poland between the two countries, the border of Ukraine moved about 200 miles Westward to include Lviv city, population 700,000. To approximately divide the area between Kiev and Lviv in half, that old boundary before 1939 and/or the longitudinal line 27.5 degrees would seem to be a reasonable boundary of a Ukraine Humanitarian Zone that could be monitored and free from armed forces. This area, about 20% of Ukraine's territory, is relatively underpopulated compared to Central and Eastern Ukraine, so this area would be less important to the Russians. That would make this idea, if adopted by the UN General Assembly, less controversial to the Russians. Western Ukraine has no Russian troops so far, unlike the Center and East.
Kiev Rail lines
Fortunately, the rail lines out of Kiev to the West actually starts out Southwest to Vinnytsia, the headquarters of the Ukrainian Air Force. So, it will take the Russians longer to cut this important refugee rail line as they begin to encircle Kiev to the West.
Ukrainian Strategy
Ukrainians have been very effective setting up traps for the invading Russians. While Russia has used only 761 missiles so far, the Ukrainians have 17,000 anti-tank Javelin missiles and 3000 Stinger anti-helicopter and anti-aircraft missiles. The Ukrainians have destroyed 350 tanks and killed three Russian generals. Although outgunned, the Ukrainians have 1400 helicopters almost as many as the 2000 the Russians have. These should be used to attack the artillery behind the Russian lines, which are usually lightly guarded. Artillery is a major cause of civilian deaths. During World War Two artillery were responsible for 78% of all military deaths. Outnumbered two to one, Robert E. Lee used Stonewall Jackson's cavalry (the helicopter of that age) to route the Union troops with a left hook strategy. There is an opportunity for a similar left hook attack behind the Western flank of the Kiev attack force seeking to disrupt vulnerable supply lines and artillery. This could be decisive to defending Kiev from encirclement and keeping the train lines open. The Ukrainians, like the Americans, seem to have strong independent sergeants, while the Russians are very top down and less resourceful at the small unit level.
Putin Trump
Both of them never hesitate to lie. Both of them see the world as killers (them) versus losers (others), and both of them are most comfortable around other so-called strong leaders. Both will deny responsibility and project on to others their own failings and deficiencies. They are so alike, it is scary. Both have pliable media that echo their endless lies and putdowns. Both are constantly attacking all enemies. To Putin, Trump has always been a "useful idiot" for Russia. Both are sociopaths. Both are violent, as the January 6 insurrection and Ukraine show. Both will do anything to stay in power. Putin has trained Trump well, almost like an organ grinder monkey.
No Fly Zone
NATO can't use a no-fly zone because "taking out" anti-aircraft guns in Russia would be necessary to control the skies over Ukraine. And that, as Biden says, leads to World War Three.
Humanitarian corridors have a much lower trigger, monitors of that policy will not shoot first, firing second only to punish a rogue intruder who breaks the rules and fires on civilians.
Empire Problem
Pushing another country around until they fight back, is the empire problem when NATO expanded Eastward despite prior agreements. Native Americans in the nineteenth century and Iraq in 1991 faced the same kinds of treatment, where the dominant powers kept changing the rules unilaterally. All the pious statements on the Sunday morning shows seldom ever consider the over eager posturing of empire states. That "normality" is seldom called out for its over aggressiveness. Kind of like passive aggressive behavior. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Stages of Empire:
https://www.academia.edu/5415354/STAGES_of_EMPIRE_Twelve_15_ppt_3_p_2007
Please cite this work as follows: Reuschlein, Robert. (2022, March 12), "Ukraine Humanitarian Zone" Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Ukraine-Humanitarian-Zone,2022268498.aspx
Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2022 with accelerating interest from the deciding Norwegians. A consistently growing pattern shows intense interest in my work on my expertclick.com website; daily "hard looks" per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 200 to 322 by the October 8th, 2021 Nobel Peace Prize announcement.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
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